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DTN Midday Livestock Comments 06/12 11:48
More Southern Cattle Trade at $235, $5.00 Higher
Packer interest should improve this afternoon as there's yet to be any
cattle traded in the North.
ShayLe Stewart
DTN Livestock Analyst
GENERAL COMMENTS:
There's been some more cattle traded in the South at $235, but traders are
still waiting to see what Northern cattle trade for. Asking prices in the South
for cattle are firm at $236 but are still not noted in the North. July lean
hogs are up $0.65 at $109.5, July corn is up 3 3/4 cents per bushel and July
soybean meal is up $0.10. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 21.09 points
and NASDAQ is up 24.52 points.
Thursday's export report shared that beef net sales of 15,300 mt for 2025
were up 71% from the previous week and 21% from the prior 4-week average. The
three largest buyers were South Korea (6,100 mt), Japan (3,200 mt) and Mexico
(2,700 mt). Pork net sales of 9,700 mt for 2025 were down 73% from the previous
week and 70% from the prior 4-week average. The three largest buyers were Japan
(3,600 mt), Canada (1,900 mt) and Colombia (1,400 mt).
LIVE CATTLE:
Although boxed beef prices are again higher, the live cattle complex is
continuing to hold its breath -- trying to wait patiently for more trade to
develop in this week's fed cash cattle market. There's been a light movement of
cattle traded in the South at $235, which is $5.00 higher than last week's
weighted average, but there's not been any trade noted in the North yet. August
live cattle are down $0.65 at $217.37, October live cattle are down $0.55 at
$214.47 and December live cattle are down $0.52 at $214.35. Asking prices for
cattle left to trade in the South are firm at $236 plus and are still not known
for the North.
Thursday's WASDE report shared supportive news for both the cattle and beef
markets of 2025. Beef production for 2025 was decreased by 65 million pounds as
fed steer and heifer processing was lower than anticipated in the second
quarter of 2025, and production throughout the rest of the year is expected to
be light. Quarterly steer price projections showed a positive increase as steer
prices in the second quarter of 2025 are expected to average $226 (up $9.00
from last month) steer prices in the third quarter of 2025 are expected to
average $226 (up $10.00 from last month) steer prices in the fourth quarter of
2025 are expected to average $229 (up $9.00 from last month) and steer prices
in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $227 (up $5.00 from last
month). Beef imports for 2025 were increased by 115 million pounds as Oceania
and South America continue to ship substantial amounts of production into the
U.S., and beef exports for 2025 also increased 45 million pounds.
Boxed beef prices are higher: choice up $2.50 ($377.26) and select up $2.98
($363.73) with a movement of 61 loads (32.40 loads of choice, 7.76 loads of
select, 13.02 loads of trim and 8.14 loads of ground beef).
FEEDER CATTLE:
The feeder cattle complex is also trading cautiously into Thursday's noon
hour as traders want to see technical support from the live cattle complex
before they'll likely again push the contract prices higher. August feeders are
down $0.35 at $310.72, September feeders are down $0.70 at $310.10 and October
feeders are down $0.60 at $308.25. Demand is still incredible in the
countryside, so the board's lower push is solely a technical decision.
LEAN HOGS:
Packers may have bought enough hogs for the week that cash prices are
slightly lower. However, traders aren't concerned with that business as they're
simply impressed that pork cutout values are still higher, which is what really
matters in their minds. July lean hogs are up $0.30 at $109.15, August lean
hogs are up $0.12 at $110.32 and October lean hogs are up $0.17 at $93.92. The
only major cut printing lower this morning is the picnic, which is just down
$0.80, but otherwise every single other major cut is currently higher.
The projected lean hog index for 6/11/2025 is up $0.84 at $101.75, and the
actual index for 6/10/2025 is up $0.94 at $100.91. Hog prices are lower on the
Daily Direct Morning Hog Report, down $1.96 with a weighted average price of
$105.19, ranging from $99.00 to $110.00 on 3,270 head and a five-day rolling
average of $105.60. Pork cutouts total 124.88 loads with 110.20 loads of pork
cuts and 14.68 loads of trim. Pork cutout values: up $2.01, $115.09.
Thursday's WASDE report shared mixed news for pork and hog markets of 2025.
Pork production for 2025 was unchanged from last month's report at 27,996
million pounds. Quarterly price projections were supportive as each quarter was
increased from last month's anticipation. Hog prices in the second quarter are
expected to average $69 (up $1.00 from last month), hog prices in the third
quarter are expected to average $74 (up $3.00 from last month), hog prices in
the fourth quarter are expected to average $63 (up $3.00 from last month) and
hog prices in the first quarter of 2026 are expected to average $63 (up $1.00
from last month). Pork imports for 2025 were increased by 15 million pounds,
while pork exports were decreased by 110 million pounds.
ShayLe Stewart can be reached shayle.stewart@dtn.com
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