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DTN Midday Grain Comments 05/13 10:51
Corn, Soybean, Wheat Futures All Higher at Midday Wednesday
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures
are 4 to 5 cents higher; wheat futures are 3 to 7 cents higher.
David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst
MARKET SUMMARY:
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents higher at midday Wednesday; soybean futures
are 4 to 5 cents higher; wheat futures are 3 to 7 cents higher. The U.S. stock
market is mixed at midday with the S&P 15 points higher. The U.S. Dollar Index
is 25 points higher. The interest rate products are weaker. Energy trade is
flat with crude up .70 and natural gas up .04. Livestock trade is sharply
higher. Precious metals are firmer with gold up 6.00.
CORN:
Corn futures are 3 to 4 cents higher with flat spread action as we edge to
fresh highs on the December as we follow soybeans and wheat post-report. On the
report, old-crop carryout was 2.142 billion bushels (bb) versus 2.127 bb last
time; new-crop was 1.957 bb versus 1.923 bb expected; 183.0 bushels per acre
(bpa) yield; world production rising by 10.0 million metric tons (mmt) in South
America. The weekly ethanol report showed production 65,000 barrels per day
higher and stocks down by 1.2 mmt. Weekly export sales are expected to be in
the 1.0 mmt to 1.2 mmt range. Basis likely continues to hold the recent range
into the start of May. Open weather and temps edging back higher after
Wednesday should support planting through midmonth. On the July chart, support
is the 20-day moving average at $4.71, which we bounced off of, with the fresh
high at $4.87 1/2 as resistance.
SOYBEANS:
Soybean futures are 4 to 5 cents higher at midday with trade working to
consolidate heading toward the summit with China with meal leading the product
side of things as we score fresh highs on November. Meal is 6.50 to 7.50 higher
and oil is 15 to 25 points lower. On the report, we saw old-crop carryout
decline from 350 mb to 340 mb; new-crop at 310 mb versus 355 mb expected;
bigger crush expectations; and a 53.0-bpa yield with South American production
unchanged. South America will continue control the short-term export market
post-harvest with trade looking for fall commitments for China purchases from
the U.S. Basis should remain flat with crush margins mostly holding. Weekly
export sales are expected to be in the 250,000 to 500,000 metric ton range.
Planting and emergence should roll along through midweek. On the July contract,
chart support is $11.97 where we find the 20-day moving average, and resistance
is the contract high at $12.40.
WHEAT:
Wheat futures are 3 to 7 cents higher with KC action continuing to lead
after the limit higher move post-report after production fell by more than
expected on the report as we get more overbought overall. On the report, we saw
old-crop carryout at 935 mb versus 938 mb last month; new-crop at 762 mb versus
833 mb expected; total production of 1.561 bb versus 1.735 bb expected; HRW
production is expected to fall from 804 mb to 515 mb. Matif wheat is lightly
weaker to start. Black Sea area weather continues to show little short-term
change. On the KC July chart, support is the 20-day moving average at $6.82
with the fresh high at $7.50 as resistance.
David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com
Follow him on social platform X @davidfiala
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